Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Nov 1 · 14:30 · FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen
Likeliest: FSV Mainz 05 win · 51%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
FSV Mainz 0551%——
OursMarket
Draw25%——
OursMarket
Werder Bremen24%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FSV Mainz 05
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 29 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)0-2
- Oct 26 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)1-2
- Oct 23 · v Zrinjski (H)1-0
- Oct 18 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)3-4
- Oct 5 · at Hamburger SV (A)0-4
Werder Bremen
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 24 · v FC Union Berlin (H)1-0
- Oct 18 · at Heidenheim (A)2-2
- Oct 4 · v St. Pauli (H)1-0
- Sep 26 · at FC Bayern München (A)0-4
- Sep 20 · v SC Freiburg (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | FSV Mainz 05 | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.