J2 League (Japan) · Tue, Nov 3 · 05:00 · Fujieda MYFC vs Jubilo Iwata
Likeliest: Jubilo Iwata win · 40%
Likely scores: 1–1 16% · 0–1 12% · 0–0 11%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fujieda MYFC27%30%−3
OursMarket
Draw33%30%+3
OursMarket
Jubilo Iwata40%39%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 43% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 44% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fujieda MYFC
LossDrawDrawLossDraw
- Oct 31 · at Blaublitz Akita (A)1-1
- Oct 24 · v Tokushima Vortis (H)0-1
- Oct 21 · at Tochigi City FC (A)2-2
- Oct 17 · v Montedio Yamagata (H)0-0
- Oct 10 · at Sagan Tosu (A)0-1
Jubilo Iwata
WinDrawDrawDrawWin
- Oct 31 · v Sagan Tosu (H)2-0
- Oct 25 · at Iwaki FC (A)1-1
- Oct 21 · v Oita Trinita (H)0-0
- Oct 17 · at Tegevajaro Miyazaki (A)1-1
- Oct 10 · v Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Fujieda MYFC | Jubilo Iwata |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-6-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-1 | 2-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.