J2 League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 17 · 05:00 · Fujieda MYFC vs Montedio Yamagata
Likeliest: Montedio Yamagata win · 36%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fujieda MYFC34%36%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Montedio Yamagata36%35%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 47% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fujieda MYFC
DrawLossDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · at Sagan Tosu (A)0-1
- Oct 3 · v Shonan Bellmare (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Oita Trinita (A)0-0
- Sep 23 · at Kyoto Sanga FC (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v RB Omiya Ardija (H)1-1
Montedio Yamagata
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 11 · v Vegalta Sendai (H)0-1
- Oct 3 · at Oita Trinita (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Sagan Tosu (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Kataller Toyama (H)0-2
- Sep 13 · at Albirex Niigata (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Fujieda MYFC | Montedio Yamagata |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-0 | 1-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.