J2 League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 24 · 05:00 · Fujieda MYFC vs Tokushima Vortis
Likeliest: Fujieda MYFC win · 45%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Fujieda MYFC45%——
OursMarket
Draw29%——
OursMarket
Tokushima Vortis26%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fujieda MYFC
LossDrawDrawLossDraw
- Oct 17 · v Montedio Yamagata (H)0-0
- Oct 10 · at Sagan Tosu (A)0-1
- Oct 3 · v Shonan Bellmare (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Oita Trinita (A)0-0
- Sep 23 · at Kyoto Sanga FC (A)0-1
Tokushima Vortis
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 17 · at Vegalta Sendai (A)0-0
- Oct 10 · v FC Imabari (H)1-2
- Oct 3 · at Albirex Niigata (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Tochigi City FC (H)0-0
- Sep 23 · at Gamba Osaka (A)0-5
| Last 10 games | Fujieda MYFC | Tokushima Vortis |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-0 | 1-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.