Premier League (England) · Sat, May 9 · 14:00 · Fulham vs AFC Bournemouth
Likeliest: Fulham win · 39%
We make it 74% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 60%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fulham39%36%+3
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−2
OursMarket
AFC Bournemouth37%38%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 60% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 64% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 49% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fulham
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- May 2 · at Arsenal (A)0-3
- Apr 25 · v Aston Villa (H)1-0
- Apr 18 · at Brentford (A)0-0
- Apr 11 · at Liverpool (A)0-2
- Mar 21 · v Burnley (H)3-1
AFC Bournemouth
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- May 3 · v Crystal Palace (H)3-0
- Apr 22 · v Leeds United (H)2-2
- Apr 18 · at Newcastle United (A)2-1
- Apr 11 · at Arsenal (A)2-1
- Mar 20 · v Manchester United (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Fulham | AFC Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-6-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.