EFL Cup (England) · Thu, Aug 27 · 19:00 · Fulham vs AFC Wimbledon
Likeliest: Fulham win · 61%
A 18% away win. The market says 7%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fulham61%79%−19
OursMarket
Draw22%14%+8
OursMarket
AFC Wimbledon18%7%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 67% | −27 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 45% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 93% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 21% | +19 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 86% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 92% | −15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fulham
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Aug 24 · v Chelsea (H)2-3
- May 24 · v Newcastle United (H)2-0
- May 17 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)1-1
- May 9 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)0-1
- May 2 · at Arsenal (A)0-3
AFC Wimbledon
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- Aug 22 · v Reading (H)0-0
- Aug 18 · at Leyton Orient (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · at Huddersfield Town (A)0-3
- Aug 8 · v Newport County (H)1-1
- May 2 · v Huddersfield Town (H)0-4
| Last 10 games | Fulham | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.