Premier League (England) · Sat, Apr 25 · 11:30 · Fulham vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: Aston Villa win · 39%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fulham35%36%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%27%0
OursMarket
Aston Villa39%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 58% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 49% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fulham
LossDrawWinLossDraw
- Apr 18 · at Brentford (A)0-0
- Apr 11 · at Liverpool (A)0-2
- Mar 21 · v Burnley (H)3-1
- Mar 15 · at Nottingham Forest (A)0-0
- Mar 8 · v Southampton (H)0-1
Aston Villa
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Apr 19 · v Sunderland (H)4-3
- Apr 16 · v Bologna (H)4-0
- Apr 12 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-1
- Apr 9 · at Bologna (A)3-1
- Mar 22 · v West Ham United (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Fulham | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.