Premier League (England) · Sat, Jan 24 · 15:00 · Fulham vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Likeliest: Fulham win · 49%
A 49% home win. The market says 37%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fulham49%37%+12
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−4
OursMarket
Brighton & Hove Albion27%35%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 53% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 58% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 65% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 63% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 52% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fulham
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- Jan 17 · at Leeds United (A)0-1
- Jan 10 · v Middlesbrough (H)3-1
- Jan 7 · v Chelsea (H)2-1
- Jan 4 · v Liverpool (H)2-2
- Jan 1 · at Crystal Palace (A)1-1
Brighton & Hove Albion
DrawWinDrawWinDraw
- Jan 19 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)1-1
- Jan 11 · at Manchester United (A)2-1
- Jan 7 · at Manchester City (A)1-1
- Jan 3 · v Burnley (H)2-0
- Dec 30 · at West Ham United (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Fulham | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.