Premier League (England) · Wed, Jan 7 · 19:30 · Fulham vs Chelsea
Likeliest: Fulham win · 41%
A 41% home win. The market says 28%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fulham41%28%+13
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
Chelsea35%46%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 53% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 54% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 72% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 38% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fulham
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Jan 4 · v Liverpool (H)2-2
- Jan 1 · at Crystal Palace (A)1-1
- Dec 27 · at West Ham United (A)1-0
- Dec 22 · v Nottingham Forest (H)1-0
- Dec 17 · at Newcastle United (A)1-2
Chelsea
WinDrawLossDrawDraw
- Jan 4 · at Manchester City (A)1-1
- Dec 30 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)2-2
- Dec 27 · v Aston Villa (H)1-2
- Dec 20 · at Newcastle United (A)2-2
- Dec 16 · at Cardiff City (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Fulham | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.