Premier League (England) · Mon, Aug 24 · 19:00 · Fulham vs Chelsea
Likeliest: Fulham win · 47%
We make it 47% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fulham47%25%+22
OursMarket
Draw24%24%−1
OursMarket
Chelsea30%51%−21
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 58% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 60% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 49% | +21 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 75% | −22 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 33% | +28 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fulham
WinLossLossDrawWin
- May 24 · v Newcastle United (H)2-0
- May 17 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)1-1
- May 9 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)0-1
- May 2 · at Arsenal (A)0-3
- Apr 25 · v Aston Villa (H)1-0
Chelsea
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- May 24 · at Sunderland (A)1-2
- May 19 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)2-1
- May 16 · v Manchester City (H)0-1
- May 9 · at Liverpool (A)1-1
- May 4 · v Nottingham Forest (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Fulham | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.