Premier League (England) · Sun, Dec 7 · 16:30 · Fulham vs Crystal Palace
Likeliest: Crystal Palace win · 41%
We make it 58% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fulham35%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−5
OursMarket
Crystal Palace41%34%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 47% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 66% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 52% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fulham
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Dec 2 · v Manchester City (H)4-5
- Nov 29 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-1
- Nov 22 · v Sunderland (H)1-0
- Nov 8 · at Everton (A)0-2
- Nov 1 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)3-0
Crystal Palace
DrawWinLossLossWin
- Dec 3 · at Burnley (A)1-0
- Nov 30 · v Manchester United (H)1-2
- Nov 27 · at Strasbourg (A)1-2
- Nov 22 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)2-0
- Nov 9 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Fulham | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.