Premier League (England) · Sat, Sep 5 · 14:00 · Fulham vs Crystal Palace
Likeliest: Fulham win · 39%
A 35% away win. The market says 31%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fulham39%41%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%28%−2
OursMarket
Crystal Palace35%31%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 51% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 57% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 69% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 59% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 57% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fulham
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Aug 30 · at Sunderland (A)0-1
- Aug 27 · v AFC Wimbledon (H)3-0
- Aug 24 · v Chelsea (H)2-3
- May 24 · v Newcastle United (H)2-0
- May 17 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)1-1
Crystal Palace
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Aug 28 · v Manchester City (H)1-4
- Aug 22 · at Everton (A)0-2
- May 27 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-0
- May 24 · v Arsenal (H)1-2
- May 17 · at Brentford (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Fulham | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.