Premier League (England) · Sat, Feb 7 · 15:00 · Fulham vs Everton
Likeliest: Fulham win · 44%
We make it 53% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fulham44%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−4
OursMarket
Everton31%26%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 43% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 49% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 74% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 63% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fulham
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Feb 1 · at Manchester United (A)2-3
- Jan 24 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)2-1
- Jan 17 · at Leeds United (A)0-1
- Jan 10 · v Middlesbrough (H)3-1
- Jan 7 · v Chelsea (H)2-1
Everton
LossDrawWinDrawDraw
- Jan 31 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-1
- Jan 26 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
- Jan 18 · at Aston Villa (A)1-0
- Jan 7 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)1-1
- Jan 4 · v Brentford (H)2-4
| Last 10 games | Fulham | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.