Premier League (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Fulham vs Hull City
Likeliest: Fulham win · 58%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fulham58%57%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Hull City18%19%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 43% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fulham
LossDrawWinDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · at Ipswich Town (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Manchester United (H)1-1
- Sep 15 · at West Ham United (A)3-2
- Sep 12 · at Liverpool (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-3
Hull City
DrawLossDrawLossDraw
- Oct 11 · v Everton (H)2-2
- Sep 19 · at Newcastle United (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Chelsea (A)2-2
- Sep 8 · at Sunderland (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Aston Villa (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Fulham | Hull City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.