Premier League (England) · Sun, Jan 4 · 15:00 · Fulham vs Liverpool
Likeliest: Liverpool win · 40%
A 36% home win. The market says 24%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fulham36%24%+11
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
Liverpool40%50%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 52% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 55% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 50% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 76% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 33% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fulham
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Jan 1 · at Crystal Palace (A)1-1
- Dec 27 · at West Ham United (A)1-0
- Dec 22 · v Nottingham Forest (H)1-0
- Dec 17 · at Newcastle United (A)1-2
- Dec 13 · at Burnley (A)3-2
Liverpool
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Jan 1 · v Leeds United (H)0-0
- Dec 27 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)2-1
- Dec 20 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-1
- Dec 13 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)2-0
- Dec 9 · at Inter (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Fulham | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.