Premier League (England) · Tue, Dec 2 · 19:30 · Fulham vs Manchester City
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 39%
A 36% home win. The market says 19%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fulham36%19%+16
OursMarket
Draw26%23%+3
OursMarket
Manchester City39%58%−19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 57% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 42% | +19 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 81% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 77% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 25% | +23 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fulham
LossWinLossWinWin
- Nov 29 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-1
- Nov 22 · v Sunderland (H)1-0
- Nov 8 · at Everton (A)0-2
- Nov 1 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)3-0
- Oct 25 · at Newcastle United (A)1-2
Manchester City
WinWinLossLossWin
- Nov 29 · v Leeds United (H)3-2
- Nov 25 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)0-2
- Nov 22 · at Newcastle United (A)1-2
- Nov 9 · v Liverpool (H)3-0
- Nov 5 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Fulham | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.