Premier League (England) · Sun, Sep 20 · 15:30 · Fulham vs Manchester United
Likeliest: Manchester United win · 49%
A tight one: we make it 49% for the away win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fulham25%28%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Manchester United49%47%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 37% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fulham
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Sep 15 · at West Ham United (A)3-2
- Sep 12 · at Liverpool (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-3
- Aug 30 · at Sunderland (A)0-1
- Aug 27 · v AFC Wimbledon (H)3-0
Manchester United
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Sep 16 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)2-3
- Sep 13 · v Manchester City (H)0-1
- Sep 10 · v Sabah FK (H)4-0
- Sep 6 · at Everton (A)2-2
- Aug 30 · v Ipswich Town (H)5-2
| Last 10 games | Fulham | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.