Premier League (England) · Sun, May 24 · 15:00 · Fulham vs Newcastle United
Likeliest: Newcastle United win · 48%
A 48% away win. The market says 41%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fulham28%33%−6
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
Newcastle United48%41%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 62% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 59% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 67% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 45% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fulham
DrawWinLossLossDraw
- May 17 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)1-1
- May 9 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)0-1
- May 2 · at Arsenal (A)0-3
- Apr 25 · v Aston Villa (H)1-0
- Apr 18 · at Brentford (A)0-0
Newcastle United
LossLossWinDrawWin
- May 17 · v West Ham United (H)3-1
- May 10 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-1
- May 2 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)3-1
- Apr 25 · at Arsenal (A)0-1
- Apr 18 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Fulham | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.