Premier League (England) · Mon, Dec 22 · 20:00 · Fulham vs Nottingham Forest
Likeliest: Fulham win · 46%
A 46% home win. The market says 38%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fulham46%38%+8
OursMarket
Draw28%30%−2
OursMarket
Nottingham Forest26%33%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 47% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 67% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 62% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 54% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fulham
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Dec 17 · at Newcastle United (A)1-2
- Dec 13 · at Burnley (A)3-2
- Dec 7 · v Crystal Palace (H)1-2
- Dec 2 · v Manchester City (H)4-5
- Nov 29 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-1
Nottingham Forest
LossWinLossWinWin
- Dec 14 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)3-0
- Dec 11 · at FC Utrecht (A)2-1
- Dec 6 · at Everton (A)0-3
- Dec 3 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)1-0
- Nov 30 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Fulham | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.