Premier League (England) · Sat, Nov 22 · 15:00 · Fulham vs Sunderland
Likeliest: Fulham win · 62%
We make it 60% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fulham62%45%+17
OursMarket
Draw21%30%−9
OursMarket
Sunderland17%25%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 42% | +18 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 75% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 55% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 70% | +9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 64% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fulham
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Nov 8 · at Everton (A)0-2
- Nov 1 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)3-0
- Oct 25 · at Newcastle United (A)1-2
- Oct 18 · v Arsenal (H)0-1
- Oct 3 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)1-3
Sunderland
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Nov 8 · v Arsenal (H)2-2
- Nov 3 · v Everton (H)1-1
- Oct 25 · at Chelsea (A)2-1
- Oct 18 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)2-0
- Oct 4 · at Manchester United (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Fulham | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.