Premier League (England) · Sun, Mar 1 · 14:00 · Fulham vs Tottenham Hotspur
Likeliest: Fulham win · 48%
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fulham48%49%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Tottenham Hotspur28%25%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 55% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 75% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 51% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 66% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fulham
LossLossLossWinWin
- Feb 22 · at Sunderland (A)3-1
- Feb 15 · at Stoke City (A)2-1
- Feb 11 · at Manchester City (A)0-3
- Feb 7 · v Everton (H)1-2
- Feb 1 · at Manchester United (A)2-3
Tottenham Hotspur
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Feb 22 · v Arsenal (H)1-4
- Feb 10 · v Newcastle United (H)1-2
- Feb 7 · at Manchester United (A)0-2
- Feb 1 · v Manchester City (H)2-2
- Jan 28 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Fulham | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.