Premier League (England) · Wed, Mar 4 · 19:30 · Fulham vs West Ham United
Likeliest: Fulham win · 44%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 55%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Fulham44%46%−2
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
West Ham United32%27%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 55% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 58% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 73% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 63% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Fulham
LossLossWinWinWin
- Mar 1 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)2-1
- Feb 22 · at Sunderland (A)3-1
- Feb 15 · at Stoke City (A)2-1
- Feb 11 · at Manchester City (A)0-3
- Feb 7 · v Everton (H)1-2
West Ham United
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Feb 28 · at Liverpool (A)2-5
- Feb 21 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)0-0
- Feb 14 · at Burton Albion (A)1-0
- Feb 10 · v Manchester United (H)1-1
- Feb 7 · at Burnley (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Fulham | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.