Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Sat, Oct 10 · 13:00 · GAIS vs IK Sirius
Likeliest: IK Sirius win · 36%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
GAIS36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+2
OursMarket
IK Sirius36%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
GAIS
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Sep 20 · at Mjällby (A)3-0
- Sep 14 · at Djurgården (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v BK Häcken (H)0-0
- Aug 31 · v IF Brommapojkarna (H)4-0
- Aug 27 · at Husqvarna FF (A)7-0
IK Sirius
WinLossWinWinWin
- Sep 19 · at Örgryte IS (A)2-1
- Sep 14 · v Degerfors IF (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · at Västerås SK (A)1-0
- Aug 31 · v Malmö FF (H)0-1
- Aug 26 · at Friska Viljor FC (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | GAIS | IK Sirius |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 9-0-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.