Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Oct 13 · 19:00 · Galatasaray vs Barcelona
Likeliest: Barcelona win · 79%
Likely score: 1–2
A 79% away win. The market says 74%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Galatasaray8%11%−3
OursMarket
Draw13%14%−1
OursMarket
Barcelona79%74%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 66% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 21% | 26% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 92% | 89% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 87% | 86% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 9% | 13% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 2.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Galatasaray
WinLossWinLossWin
- Oct 9 · v Kasımpaşa (H)3-1
- Sep 19 · at Trabzonspor (A)0-4
- Sep 13 · v Kocaelispor (H)1-0
- Sep 9 · at Sporting (A)1-3
- Sep 4 · at Başakşehir FK (A)3-2
Barcelona
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · v Getafe (H)3-0
- Sep 19 · at Sevilla (A)3-1
- Sep 16 · v Racing de Santander (H)7-2
- Sep 13 · at Levante UD (A)4-2
- Sep 9 · v Feyenoord (H)5-1
| Last 10 games | Galatasaray | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 9-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 4.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 8-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.