Super Lig (Turkey) · Fri, Oct 9 · 17:00 · Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa
Likeliest: Galatasaray win · 79%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 79% for the home win. The market says 76%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Galatasaray79%76%+3
OursMarket
Draw14%15%−2
OursMarket
Kasımpaşa7%9%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 66% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 93% | 91% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 21% | 24% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 86% | 85% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 92% | 90% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Galatasaray
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Sep 19 · at Trabzonspor (A)0-4
- Sep 13 · v Kocaelispor (H)1-0
- Sep 9 · at Sporting (A)1-3
- Sep 4 · at Başakşehir FK (A)3-2
- Aug 29 · v Göztepe (H)3-2
Kasımpaşa
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- Sep 18 · v Konyaspor (H)0-0
- Sep 13 · at Gençlerbirliği (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Amed Sportif Faaliyetler (H)2-2
- Aug 30 · at Başakşehir FK (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Çorum FK (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Galatasaray | Kasımpaşa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.