Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Nov 3 · 17:45 · Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart
Likeliest: Galatasaray win · 43%
Likely scores: 1–1 10% · 1–2 8% · 2–1 7%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Galatasaray43%43%0
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
VfB Stuttgart33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | 68% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Galatasaray
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 30 · at Konyaspor (A)4-0
- Oct 26 · v Fenerbahçe (H)2-1
- Oct 21 · at Lille (A)4-2
- Oct 17 · at Gençlerbirliği (A)1-0
- Oct 13 · v Barcelona (H)1-4
VfB Stuttgart
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Oct 31 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)4-2
- Oct 28 · at SC Paderborn 07 (A)1-0
- Oct 23 · v Borussia M'gladbach (H)2-3
- Oct 20 · v Atletico Madrid (H)1-1
- Oct 17 · at Hamburger SV (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Galatasaray | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.