Premier Division (Ireland) · Fri, Oct 16 · 18:45 · Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers
Likeliest: Shamrock Rovers win · 56%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 56% for the away win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Galway United18%22%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Shamrock Rovers56%53%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 44% | 47% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 78% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 24% | 29% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Galway United
DrawLossWinLossDraw
- Sep 25 · v Shelbourne (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Derry City (A)0-1
- Sep 14 · at Sligo Rovers (A)3-1
- Sep 11 · v Bohemian FC (H)2-3
- Aug 28 · v Shelbourne (H)1-1
Shamrock Rovers
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Oct 12 · v Bohemian FC (H)2-1
- Oct 8 · v Drogheda United (H)3-1
- Sep 18 · v Waterford FC (H)3-2
- Sep 11 · at St. Patrick's Athletic (A)0-2
- Sep 4 · v Shelbourne (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Galway United | Shamrock Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.