Premier Division (Ireland) · Fri, Sep 25 · 18:45 · Galway United vs Shelbourne
Likeliest: Shelbourne win · 39%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Galway United33%35%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Shelbourne39%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 48% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Galway United
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Sep 18 · at Derry City (A)0-1
- Sep 14 · at Sligo Rovers (A)3-1
- Sep 11 · v Bohemian FC (H)2-3
- Aug 28 · v Shelbourne (H)1-1
- Aug 21 · at Dundalk FC (A)2-1
Shelbourne
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 18 · at Dundalk FC (A)3-2
- Sep 14 · v Drogheda United (H)1-2
- Sep 11 · v Derry City (H)0-1
- Sep 4 · at Shamrock Rovers (A)0-0
- Aug 28 · at Galway United (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Galway United | Shelbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-2 | 1-6-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.