Premier Division (Ireland) · Fri, Oct 23 · 18:45 · Galway United vs St. Patrick's Athletic
Likeliest: St. Patrick's Athletic win · 64%
Likely score: 0–1
A 64% away win. The market says 59%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Galway United14%18%−4
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
St. Patrick's Athletic64%59%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 37% | 41% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 87% | 82% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 18% | 23% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Galway United
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 19 · at Waterford FC (A)2-3
- Oct 16 · v Shamrock Rovers (H)2-0
- Sep 25 · v Shelbourne (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Derry City (A)0-1
- Sep 14 · at Sligo Rovers (A)3-1
St. Patrick's Athletic
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 19 · at Derry City (A)0-1
- Oct 16 · v Shelbourne (H)1-2
- Sep 19 · at Sligo Rovers (A)1-0
- Sep 14 · at Dundalk FC (A)4-0
- Sep 11 · v Shamrock Rovers (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Galway United | St. Patrick's Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-2 | 4-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.