AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Tue, Sep 15 · 10:00 · Gamba Osaka vs Công An Hà Nội
Likeliest: Gamba Osaka win · 63%
A tight one: we make it 63% for the home win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gamba Osaka63%61%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%21%0
OursMarket
Công An Hà Nội16%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 61% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 39% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 77% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gamba Osaka
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Sep 12 · v FC Tokyo (H)0-2
- Sep 6 · at JEF United Chiba (A)0-2
- Sep 2 · at V-Varen Nagasaki (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v Sanfrecce Hiroshima (H)0-0
- Aug 22 · at Nagoya Grampus (A)1-3
Công An Hà Nội
LossLossWinWinWin
- Sep 10 · at Thể Công - Viettel (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · v Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh (H)2-0
- Aug 11 · at Adelaide United (A)2-0
- Jun 7 · at Thể Công-Viettel (A)0-1
- Jun 7 · at Thể Công - Viettel (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Gamba Osaka | Công An Hà Nội |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.