J-League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 24 · 07:00 · Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga FC
Likeliest: Gamba Osaka win · 51%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Gamba Osaka51%——
OursMarket
Draw24%——
OursMarket
Kyoto Sanga FC25%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gamba Osaka
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 17 · at Shimizu S-Pulse (A)2-2
- Oct 13 · at Newcastle Jets (A)3-1
- Oct 9 · at Kashima Antlers (A)0-2
- Sep 23 · v Tokushima Vortis (H)5-0
- Sep 20 · v Vissel Kobe (H)0-1
Kyoto Sanga FC
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Sanfrecce Hiroshima (A)0-3
- Oct 13 · v Ratchaburi (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Machida Zelvia (H)0-1
- Sep 23 · v Fujieda MYFC (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Fagiano Okayama (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Gamba Osaka | Kyoto Sanga FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.