Emperor Cup (Japan) · Wed, Sep 23 · 08:00 · Gamba Osaka vs Tokushima Vortis
Likeliest: Gamba Osaka win · 54%
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 51%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gamba Osaka54%62%−9
OursMarket
Draw24%21%+3
OursMarket
Tokushima Vortis22%16%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 51% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 84% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 38% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 79% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 79% | −8 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gamba Osaka
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 20 · v Vissel Kobe (H)0-1
- Sep 15 · v Công An Hà Nội (H)4-1
- Sep 12 · v FC Tokyo (H)0-2
- Sep 6 · at JEF United Chiba (A)0-2
- Sep 2 · at V-Varen Nagasaki (A)2-2
Tokushima Vortis
LossWinWinLossWin
- Sep 19 · at Ventforet Kofu (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Blaublitz Akita (A)1-4
- Sep 5 · v Iwaki FC (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · v Oita Trinita (H)1-0
- Aug 22 · at Jubilo Iwata (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Gamba Osaka | Tokushima Vortis |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 5-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 56% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.