J-League (Japan) · Sun, Sep 20 · 08:00 · Gamba Osaka vs Vissel Kobe
Likeliest: Vissel Kobe win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gamba Osaka25%28%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Vissel Kobe44%43%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 39% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gamba Osaka
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 15 · v Công An Hà Nội (H)4-1
- Sep 12 · v FC Tokyo (H)0-2
- Sep 6 · at JEF United Chiba (A)0-2
- Sep 2 · at V-Varen Nagasaki (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v Sanfrecce Hiroshima (H)0-0
Vissel Kobe
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 16 · at Port FC (A)2-1
- Sep 11 · v Kashima Antlers (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · v V-Varen Nagasaki (H)3-1
- Sep 2 · at Tokyo Verdy (A)2-0
- Aug 29 · v Cerezo Osaka (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Gamba Osaka | Vissel Kobe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.