3rd Division, Group 1 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 10 · 12:00 · Gamle Oslo FK vs Nordstrand
Likeliest: Gamle Oslo FK win · 46%
A 27% away win. The market says 9%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gamle Oslo FK46%78%−32
OursMarket
Draw27%13%+14
OursMarket
Nordstrand27%9%+18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 91% | −18 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 22% | +32 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 87% | −14 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 89% | −26 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gamle Oslo FK
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 3 · at Frigg (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Lokomotiv Oslo (A)1-4
- Sep 20 · v Asker (H)1-2
- Sep 16 · v Lyn FK (H)1-3
- Sep 12 · at Vålerenga IF II (A)1-2
Nordstrand
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 3 · v Vålerenga IF II (H)0-3
- Sep 26 · at Asker (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Lokomotiv Oslo (H)5-0
- Sep 12 · at FK Union Carl Berner (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Bærum SK (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Gamle Oslo FK | Nordstrand |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-2 | 1-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.