K League 1 (South Korea) · Fri, Oct 9 · 07:30 · Gangwon FC vs Bucheon FC 1995
Likeliest: Gangwon FC win · 53%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gangwon FC53%53%0
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+2
OursMarket
Bucheon FC 199518%19%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 45% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 47% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 47% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gangwon FC
DrawDrawDrawLossDraw
- Sep 27 · v Incheon United (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Jeju SK (H)0-1
- Sep 17 · at Kitchee SC (A)0-0
- Sep 13 · at Gimcheon Sangmu FC (A)2-2
- Sep 9 · v Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (H)1-1
Bucheon FC 1995
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · v Gimcheon Sangmu FC (H)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Jeju SK (H)2-2
- Sep 8 · at Incheon United (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Daejeon Hana Citizen (H)0-5
- Aug 29 · v FC Anyang (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Gangwon FC | Bucheon FC 1995 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-5-2 | 1-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.