AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Tue, Aug 11 · 10:30 · Gangwon FC vs Gamba Osaka
Likeliest: Gangwon FC win · 49%
A 49% home win. The market says 34%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gangwon FC49%34%+15
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Gamba Osaka25%37%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 47% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 51% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 63% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 66% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 48% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gangwon FC
DrawWinDrawLossLoss
- Aug 1 · v Bucheon FC 1995 (H)0-3
- Jul 26 · at FC Anyang (A)1-2
- Jul 21 · at Jeju SK (A)1-1
- Jul 18 · v Gimcheon Sangmu FC (H)2-0
- Jul 12 · at FC Seoul (A)0-0
Gamba Osaka
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Aug 7 · v Urawa Red Diamonds (H)4-3
- Jun 6 · at Tokyo Verdy (A)4-2
- May 30 · v Tokyo Verdy (H)1-1
- May 24 · at Shimizu S-Pulse (A)2-1
- May 16 · at Al Nassr (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Gangwon FC | Gamba Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.