K League 1 (South Korea) · Sun, Sep 27 · 10:00 · Gangwon FC vs Incheon United
Likeliest: Gangwon FC win · 37%
We make it 52% for both teams to score. The market says 46%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gangwon FC37%39%−3
OursMarket
Draw34%30%+3
OursMarket
Incheon United30%30%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 39% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 46% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | 70% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gangwon FC
WinDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 20 · v Jeju SK (H)0-1
- Sep 17 · at Kitchee SC (A)0-0
- Sep 13 · at Gimcheon Sangmu FC (A)2-2
- Sep 9 · v Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at FC Anyang (A)3-0
Incheon United
DrawLossWinLossDraw
- Sep 20 · v Daejeon Hana Citizen (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Ulsan HD (A)1-2
- Sep 8 · v Bucheon FC 1995 (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at FC Seoul (A)0-1
- Aug 30 · v Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Gangwon FC | Incheon United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.