K League 1 (South Korea) · Sun, Oct 18 · 07:30 · Gangwon FC vs Incheon United
Likeliest: Gangwon FC win · 40%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gangwon FC40%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw33%30%+3
OursMarket
Incheon United27%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 39% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 44% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gangwon FC
DrawLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 15 · v Phnom Penh Crown (H)1-2
- Oct 9 · v Bucheon FC 1995 (H)2-0
- Sep 27 · v Incheon United (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Jeju SK (H)0-1
- Sep 17 · at Kitchee SC (A)0-0
Incheon United
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Oct 9 · v Pohang Steelers (H)3-0
- Sep 27 · at Gangwon FC (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Daejeon Hana Citizen (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Ulsan HD (A)1-2
- Sep 8 · v Bucheon FC 1995 (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Gangwon FC | Incheon United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.