K League 1 (South Korea) · Sun, Sep 20 · 07:30 · Gangwon FC vs Jeju SK
Likeliest: Gangwon FC win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gangwon FC44%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Jeju SK26%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 46% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 50% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gangwon FC
DrawWinDrawDrawDraw
- Sep 17 · at Kitchee SC (A)0-0
- Sep 13 · at Gimcheon Sangmu FC (A)2-2
- Sep 9 · v Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at FC Anyang (A)3-0
- Aug 30 · v Pohang Steelers (H)0-0
Jeju SK
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Sep 12 · at Bucheon FC 1995 (A)2-2
- Sep 9 · at Gwangju FC (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · v Ulsan HD (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · v Daejeon Hana Citizen (H)3-1
- Aug 25 · v Pohang Steelers (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Gangwon FC | Jeju SK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-1 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.