National League (England) · Fri, Oct 23 · 18:45 · Gateshead vs Tamworth
Likeliest: Tamworth win · 57%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 57% for the away win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gateshead20%24%−4
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Tamworth57%53%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 62% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 43% | 47% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 26% | 31% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gateshead
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · v Stafford Rangers (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · at FC Halifax Town (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Worthing FC (H)1-2
- Sep 29 · v Altrincham (H)0-1
- Sep 26 · at Wealdstone (A)0-4
Tamworth
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Carlisle United (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · v Barrow AFC (H)1-2
- Oct 3 · at Hartlepool United (A)1-0
- Sep 30 · v Sutton United (H)2-0
- Sep 26 · at Aldershot Town (A)1-5
| Last 10 games | Gateshead | Tamworth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-3-7 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.