National League (England) · Sat, Oct 3 · 14:00 · Gateshead vs Worthing FC
Likeliest: Worthing FC win · 58%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 58% for the away win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gateshead18%22%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Worthing FC58%55%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 42% | 45% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 78% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 24% | 29% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 2.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gateshead
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 29 · v Altrincham (H)0-1
- Sep 26 · at Wealdstone (A)0-4
- Sep 19 · v Southend United (H)1-6
- Sep 16 · at Kidderminster Harriers (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Forest Green Rovers (A)0-4
Worthing FC
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 29 · at Yeovil Town (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v FC Halifax Town (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Hartlepool United (A)3-1
- Sep 15 · v Hornchurch (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Barrow AFC (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Gateshead | Worthing FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 2-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.