Super Lig (Turkey) · Sun, Oct 11 · 13:00 · Gaziantep FK vs Çorum FK
Likeliest: Çorum FK win · 36%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gaziantep FK34%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Çorum FK36%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gaziantep FK
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · at Kocaelispor (A)0-2
- Sep 14 · v Fenerbahçe (H)0-0
- Sep 7 · at Göztepe (A)4-2
- Aug 29 · v Çaykur Rizespor (H)1-2
- Aug 23 · at Eyüpspor (A)1-0
Çorum FK
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 19 · v Alanyaspor (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Samsunspor (A)5-1
- Sep 6 · v Eyüpspor (H)3-0
- Aug 31 · at Beşiktaş (A)2-6
- Aug 22 · v Kasımpaşa (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Gaziantep FK | Çorum FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.