Super Lig (Turkey) · Sat, Oct 24 · 13:00 · Gaziantep FK vs Erzurumspor FK
Likeliest: Gaziantep FK win · 40%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 55% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gaziantep FK40%41%−2
OursMarket
Draw35%32%+3
OursMarket
Erzurumspor FK26%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 44% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 50% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 65% | 68% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gaziantep FK
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 18 · at Başakşehir FK (A)1-2
- Oct 11 · v Çorum FK (H)0-3
- Sep 19 · at Kocaelispor (A)0-2
- Sep 14 · v Fenerbahçe (H)0-0
- Sep 7 · at Göztepe (A)4-2
Erzurumspor FK
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v Eyüpspor (H)2-0
- Oct 10 · at Alanyaspor (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Samsunspor (H)1-0
- Sep 11 · at Beşiktaş (A)0-3
- Sep 5 · v Konyaspor (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Gaziantep FK | Erzurumspor FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-5 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.