Super Lig (Turkey) · Mon, Sep 14 · 17:00 · Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe
Likeliest: Fenerbahçe win · 63%
A tight one: we make it 63% for the away win. The market says 60%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gaziantep FK14%17%−3
OursMarket
Draw23%23%+1
OursMarket
Fenerbahçe63%60%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 37% | 40% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 86% | 83% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 18% | 22% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gaziantep FK
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Sep 7 · at Göztepe (A)4-2
- Aug 29 · v Çaykur Rizespor (H)1-2
- Aug 23 · at Eyüpspor (A)1-0
- Aug 15 · v Alanyaspor (H)1-1
- May 16 · v İstanbul Başakşehir (H)1-2
Fenerbahçe
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Sep 10 · v Roma (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Beşiktaş (H)1-2
- Aug 30 · at Samsunspor (A)2-0
- Aug 26 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)2-1
- Aug 22 · v Konyaspor (H)4-2
| Last 10 games | Gaziantep FK | Fenerbahçe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.