Super Lig (Turkey) · Sat, Oct 17 · 13:00 · Gençlerbirliği vs Galatasaray
Likeliest: Galatasaray win · 73%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 61% for both teams to score. The market says 56%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Gençlerbirliği10%13%−4
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
Galatasaray73%69%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 56% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 27% | 31% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 91% | 87% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 11% | 16% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Gençlerbirliği
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 10 · v Amed Sportif Faaliyetler (H)2-2
- Sep 19 · at Başakşehir FK (A)0-4
- Sep 13 · v Kasımpaşa (H)1-2
- Sep 6 · at Trabzonspor (A)0-5
- Aug 28 · v Erzurumspor FK (H)1-1
Galatasaray
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 13 · v Barcelona (H)1-4
- Oct 9 · v Kasımpaşa (H)3-1
- Sep 19 · at Trabzonspor (A)0-4
- Sep 13 · v Kocaelispor (H)1-0
- Sep 9 · at Sporting (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Gençlerbirliği | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.