Serie A (Italy) · Sun, May 17 · 10:30 · Genoa vs AC Milan
Likeliest: Genoa win · 40%
We make it 57% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Genoa40%20%+20
OursMarket
Draw29%25%+3
OursMarket
AC Milan31%54%−23
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 49% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 41% | 50% | −10 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 46% | +23 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 80% | −20 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 75% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 27% | +30 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Genoa
WinWinLossDrawDraw
- May 10 · at Fiorentina (A)0-0
- May 2 · at Atalanta (A)0-0
- Apr 26 · v Como (H)0-2
- Apr 19 · at Pisa (A)2-1
- Apr 12 · v Sassuolo (H)2-1
AC Milan
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- May 10 · v Atalanta (H)2-3
- May 3 · at Sassuolo (A)0-2
- Apr 26 · v Juventus (H)0-0
- Apr 19 · at Hellas Verona (A)1-0
- Apr 11 · v Udinese (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Genoa | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.