Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Dec 21 · 19:45 · Genoa vs Atalanta
Likeliest: Atalanta win · 39%
A 33% home win. The market says 23%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Genoa33%23%+9
OursMarket
Draw28%28%0
OursMarket
Atalanta39%48%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 52% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 77% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 32% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Genoa
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Dec 14 · v Inter (H)1-2
- Dec 8 · at Udinese (A)2-1
- Dec 3 · at Atalanta (A)0-4
- Nov 29 · v Hellas Verona (H)2-1
- Nov 22 · at Cagliari (A)3-3
Atalanta
WinWinLossWinWin
- Dec 13 · v Cagliari (H)2-1
- Dec 9 · v Chelsea (H)2-1
- Dec 6 · at Hellas Verona (A)1-3
- Dec 3 · v Genoa (H)4-0
- Nov 30 · v Fiorentina (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Genoa | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.