Serie A (Italy) · Mon, Jan 12 · 17:30 · Genoa vs Cagliari
Likeliest: Genoa win · 50%
We make it 51% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 37%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Genoa50%45%+4
OursMarket
Draw25%32%−7
OursMarket
Cagliari25%23%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 37% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 44% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 77% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 55% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 68% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 67% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Genoa
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Jan 8 · at AC Milan (A)1-1
- Jan 3 · v Pisa (H)1-1
- Dec 29 · at Roma (A)1-3
- Dec 21 · v Atalanta (H)0-1
- Dec 14 · v Inter (H)1-2
Cagliari
LossDrawWinLossDraw
- Jan 8 · at Cremonese (A)2-2
- Jan 2 · v Milan (H)0-1
- Dec 27 · at Torino (A)2-1
- Dec 21 · v Pisa (H)2-2
- Dec 13 · at Atalanta (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Genoa | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.