Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Apr 26 · 13:00 · Genoa vs Como
Likeliest: Como win · 37%
A 36% home win. The market says 21%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Genoa36%21%+15
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+2
OursMarket
Como37%53%−16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 47% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 47% | +16 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 79% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 28% | +21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Genoa
WinLossLossWinWin
- Apr 19 · at Pisa (A)2-1
- Apr 12 · v Sassuolo (H)2-1
- Apr 6 · at Juventus (A)0-2
- Mar 20 · v Udinese (H)0-2
- Mar 15 · at Hellas Verona (A)2-0
Como
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Apr 21 · at Inter (A)2-3
- Apr 17 · at Sassuolo (A)1-2
- Apr 12 · v Inter (H)3-4
- Apr 6 · at Udinese (A)0-0
- Mar 22 · v Pisa (H)5-0
| Last 10 games | Genoa | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.