Serie A (Italy) · Fri, Sep 4 · 18:45 · Genoa vs Como
Likeliest: Como win · 54%
We make it 50% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Genoa23%18%+4
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−5
OursMarket
Como54%53%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 41% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 45% | 45% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 82% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 30% | 26% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Genoa
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Aug 30 · at Lazio (A)0-1
- Aug 22 · v Napoli (H)0-2
- Aug 16 · v Ascoli (H)4-1
- May 24 · at Lecce (A)0-1
- May 17 · v AC Milan (H)1-2
Como
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Aug 30 · at Napoli (A)2-1
- Aug 22 · at Udinese (A)1-1
- May 24 · at Cremonese (A)4-1
- May 17 · v Parma (H)1-0
- May 10 · at Hellas Verona (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Genoa | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.